Those of you who attended Ian Dunlop's STEP AGM talk on 4 November may have ended up distressed by the implications for the future from human-induced climate change, and frustrated by the slow progress of political action. As such you may not want to read any more bad news having also had more than enough from the current global scene. But I’m still strongly recommending this book, for quite a variety of reasons.

We’ve all heard of the IPCC, and maybe also read or heard the climate-sceptic’s nonsense: that it’s just a bunch of academics in ivory towers massaging dodgy data on screens to predict disasters that will probably never happen. Well Joëlle Gergis is a fully fledged climate scientist, an academic currently linked to ANU, who's a true insider on IPCC reporting, and her story is telling, compelling and very personal. In various contexts she highlights the intense scrutiny and work, often at night and into the early hours and mostly unpaid, by the thousands of scientists from all over our besieged planet. If there is any better evaluation of this ground-breaking global organisation I’ve yet to come across it.

But there’s much more to this book because it’s a personal journey by somebody who’s professional, dedicated and almost obsessive in her devotion to her science and its message. The implications of hers and the IPCC’s work have left her depressed and almost suicidal at times but she soldiers on under a worsening climate and its disasters. In this respect, the content of the book may seem repetitive at times but I never wanted to put it down. I can think of many public figures for whom it should be compulsory reading. But it does end on a hopeful note, that the means of fixing things are widely available, and work is in progress on many fronts.

Joëlle Gergis, Black Inc (2022) 325 pp (reviewed by John Martyn)

At our AGM on 4 November, Ian provided a clear message about the future of the Earth and humankind. He summed up with a quotation from a statement made in 2021 by Sir David King, former UK Chief Scientist:

What we do over the next three to five years will determine the future of humanity.

The talk was about global warming. It was also about the urgent need to change the paradigm of growth and capitalism that underpins our economic systems.

Firstly, here is some background to his arguments.

Club of Rome – limits to growth

Fifty years ago, the Club of Rome created a computer model that projected trends in the variables that define human society: population, food production, industrial output, pollution and use of non-renewable resources.

At the time all these variables were increasing and were assumed to continue to grow exponentially while the ability of technology to increase the efficiency of use of finite natural resources grew only linearly.

The model predicted that the continuation of these trends would lead to a limit in the second half of this century. The most probable result will be a sudden and uncontrolled decline in population and ecosystems with flow on effects on industrial capacity and the supply of our basic needs.

Many studies have shown that the trends predicted are proving to be realistic. The limit of available non-renewable resources is being reached which will affect our capacity to continue our current lifestyle. Our civilisation only works if it grows, but that growth is now destroying the resources that maintain the civilisation.

The most obvious limit – our climate

The recent extreme weather experience in many locations around the world and the reports from the scientific experts highlight that we are getting close to a situation where temperature increases will exceed the ideal set in the Paris Agreement of 1.5°C and the fall-back position of 2°C is becoming harder to achieve.

We are already reaching tipping points, namely changes in the Earth’s systems that will be impossible to reverse, such as melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets and boreal permafrost. Once these changes are set in train the trend of temperature increases and sea level rise will be even harder to reverse.

The climate system has a strong level of inertia so any response to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will take several years to have any effect on temperature levels.

If emission levels are not reduced urgently to zero, not just net zero, we are on a path to temperature increases of 3°C or even 5°C that will make human life on our planet unliveable for most people. Zero emissions is required to reduce the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere that is the driving force behind climate change.

How can we turn around these frightening prospects?

There is a lot of optimism expressed about the ability of technology to slow down emissions. But implementation of these technologies is too slow. Forget about the conflict that we are experiencing. These security threats and the need to build up military capacity are less urgent. What we need is radical change in the economic system. Is this possible?

Ian Dunlop is a member of the think tank called Earth4All that focuses on systemic change for global well-being. They are presenting two scenarios:

• Too little too late – what if we continue on our current destructive path?
• Giant leap – what if we achieve the fastest transformation in history?

Earth4All has gathered leading thinkers to advice on the economic ideas that show the most promise to unite societies and bring long-term prosperity to the majority. The current trend of an increasing gap between rich and poor has to change. Instability will be the outcome if the poor have to bear the brunt of impacts from climate change.

There are five core changes that are needed:

• poverty – more government planning and less market influence in economic development
• inequality – transfers from the few rich to the many poor
• empowerment – education, health, contraception, and opportunity to all women
• food – regenerative agriculture, higher efficiency, fairer distribution
• energy – shift from fossil fuels to renewables, higher efficiency, carbon capture and storage

Forces working against change

The free market will not solve the problems. However, what the world needs is not profitable from the investor perspective using conventional criteria.

Existing jobs are threatened – we need to move from jobs creating emissions and using natural resources to jobs restoring nature and re-using materials

Government measures will not be popular. These will entail such measures as higher taxes and more regulation.

Ian Dunlop suggests that the disparity in wealth means that the richest 10% could pay to make these changes happen.

Change remains possible and solutions exist if we choose to take them. Cooperation, not conflict, is the essential ingredient.

Communities must speak out loudly, bluntly and frequently about the urgency for change.

Ian Dunlop has been a writer and activist on climate change for about 50 years and he is chair of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group.

Grayling Reserve is a small area on the corner of Grayling Street and Binalong Street in West Pymble. It covers an area of about 1,300 m². There is a creek on one side plus a narrow strip of bushland. Two sides are bounded by houses and the fourth side is a narrow entrance from Grayling Street. The remainder is a grassed area with a few saplings. Visibility of the grassed area is screened by the bushland.

In the bushland there are several large Blackbutt trees with hollows that are likely to be over 100 years old. These trees are increasingly rare in Ku-ring-gai and need special protection. There is one Blackbutt that would have a girth of about 5 m at the Grayling Street entrance. There is also a Lomatia myricoides (River Lomatia) and some Allocasuarina torulosa which are quite unusual in West Pymble.

The major part of the reserve is classified as critically endangered Sydney Turpentine Ironbark Forest on council mapping. The reserve is also an essential wildlife corridor.

The trees in the reserve used to be roosting sites for Powerful Owls, Boobook Owls and Tawny Frogmouths. Gliders have also been seen in the past and there are markings on the trees from their activity. The neighbours have advised that they have not seen this wildlife since the bike park disturbance occurred.

During COVID, in 2021, the locals started building bike jumps and paths in the cleared area of the park. This area is only small, about 900 m². Even though this construction was unauthorised, council recognised the demand for this sort of informal facility. The building is an integral part of the fun as well as the bike riding.

After some consultation with the neighbours and an environmental assessment, in May 2023, council decided to trial making the bike park official and provided some dirt and tools to assist with building jumps.

Signs were erected advising the conditions of the trial, for example:

Do not dig, use the materials provided

Tread lightly, don’t harm bushland or plants

Keep the site clear of rubbish

However, by July there were reports from neighbours of anti-social behaviour with older children harassing the younger ones, night time disturbance and dangerous riding in nearby streets. Trees were being damaged, some small Callicomas chopped down and dirt piled up against the Blackbutt at the entrance. Water was being taken from neighbouring properties. Creek crossings were being created interrupting the flow of the creek.

In response council placed temporary signs with stronger warnings in several locations around the site, for example:

Do not harm trees or plants or this track will be closed

Damage continued and the signs were pulled down so council closed the site and undertook a survey of the local community.

This site is not suitable for a bike park

STEP’s submission argued that this area should be a reserve, that is a quiet space for passive enjoyment for visitors and habitat for wildlife; not a highly disturbed play area. The area is not visible from the street and is too small to be a useful bike park.

In September council responded to the consultation feedback by deciding to close the build-and-ride park trial, saying the reasons were the various environmental and social issues. The announcement noted that signposted conditions of use had been repeatedly broken by users. Details are here: .

The West Pymble Facebook page erupted with comments expressing outrage at the removal of a valued facility. It seems the value had been abused. However there is a strong interest in the concept of a build-and-ride site.

Often it is the build aspect that is the most popular – sand pits for bigger kids? Council is looking for suggestions from the public of sites suitable for trials of the build-and-ride concept.

Our Black Summer fires were closely followed by record rainfall and flooding. We were actually up in the Blue Mountains for a week in February 2020 when it virtually poured every day, accumulating more than 500 mm. Soil on steep slopes was either winnowed or swept away along with a mind boggling volume of charred debris. But outcomes from such a scenario can be even worse in a safety sense, as described in an article from The Atlantic Weekly (first published on 1 November in High Country News). I’ve reproduced a couple of paragraphs below.

Two Septembers ago, the residents of Grotto, Washington, woke to the Bolt Creek Fire ripping through the mountains above their homes … No one was hurt, and no houses burned. But now, wildfire survivors in Washington now face a new threat: debris flows. Wildfires can lessen the soil’s ability to absorb water, so when thunderstorms, rapid snowmelt, atmospheric rivers, or rain falling on snow occur in a burned area, that can create a roaring earthen river. Debris flows can move quickly — 30 mph or more — sliding from the uplands to the valley floor in a matter of minutes.

Debris flows are more dangerous than mudslides and slower-moving landslides: They can sweep away boulders, trees, and cars, and threaten everything in their path, including roads and homes and the people who live in them. Last year, in Washington’s Okanogan County, two residents were rescued from their home after earth flowed through a burn scar. Another flow destroyed a cabin and sent a foot of water and mud into at least 30 structures. And in 2018, 23 people were killed when heavy rains triggered a debris flow in the burn scar of Southern California’s Thomas Fire.

John Martyn came across this article in Apple News that’s very relevant for fires in our mountainous districts.